It has taken in more than a million refugees from its close ally Ukraine since the start of the war, with many more millions passing through it. Its relations with Ukraine have soured in recent months, partly because of a dispute over the impact of Ukrainian grain imports on local farmers. Tian also expects the result to "reposition Poland as a staunch supporter of Ukraine" and for Tusk to push for EU accession for Ukraine. "The big thing to bear in mind when looking at Poland and Ukraine is they have an overarching strategic common interest [challenging Russian aggression], and this supersedes everything. So it will be difficult to restore relations to how they were in the first 18 months of the war, regardless of what Poland does."

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Persons: Donald Tusk, Donald Tusk —, —, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Tusk, Tian, Aleks Szczerbiak, Szczerbiak Organizations: Civic, Getty, EU, Justice, CNBC, NATO, World Trade Organization, Law, Nurphoto, European, Economist Intelligence Unit, University of Sussex, Confederation, Soviet, Russia Locations: Warsaw, Moscow, Ukraine, Europe, Russia, China, India, Poland, Warsaw's, Krakow, Central Europe, Hungary, Slovakia, Berlin